Greg DeMarco takes a dive into the potential ratings glory that could be achieved by AEW & NXT on Wednesday nights. What’s realistic? And will TNT & USA be happy?

We are just weeks away from the return of a “war” in the televised wrestling landscape. The Monday Night Wars say WWE Monday Night Raw and WCW Monday Nitro battle it out for the eyeballs of wrestling fans throughout the country (and world). WWE would ultimately win, and now we have all of the WCW content available to stream on the WWE Network for just $9.99.

Now we are embarking on a new war, the Wednesday Night Wars! This time around the role of WCW is being played by All Elite Wrestling, the Khan family owned upstart run by Cody Rhodes, The Young Bucks, Kenny Omega, and Brandi Rhodes. And the opposition isn’t WWE, as Vince McMahon is sending Triple H into battle when NXT defends the honor of Titan Sports against wrestling’s “new girl.”

On Thursday, October 3, 2019, we will have ratings data for both wrestling shows, and for the first time in forever we can argue over the validity of TV ratings when comparing shows that went head-to-head! That’s exciting for the fan in me, even if I now better. The landscape of television is completely different from the Monday Night Wars, thanks to advancements in digital video recording, streaming networks, and a whole slew of people cutting the cord. Comparing the Wednesday Night Wars to the Monday Night Wars is like comparing apples to softballs–it’s silly.

But when has silly stopped a wrestling fan from doing….well, anything! 🙂

But it’s important to remember that while each company wants to beat the other (and they really really really do), the true barometer of success comes from the networks they are answering to. For WWE, it’s the USA Network, the company’s largest historical partner who paid somewhere between $30 million and $90 million for the rights to NXT, making the yellow and black brand a profitable entity for WWE. For AEW, it’s TNT, the former home of WCW Nitro and broadcast partner who paid basically nothing (outside of production costs) for AEW content.

I mean right there it’s obvious to me that we can’t actually compare these, as their TV deals are so different–and expectations will be, too! But like I said, when has silly ever stopped us???

What does history tell us?

NXT made it’s broadcast debut on the USA Network on December 13, 2017 as part of WWE Week. The broadcast aired at 7 PM eastern time (and hour earlier than what NXT will do starting on September 18) and was only an hour long (it will be two hours this time around). According to ShowBuzzDaily, that show drew a .27 demographic rating and 841k total viewers. That was good enough for the show to come in 22nd for the night on all of cable. On that night, the Top 150 was topped by two NBA basketball games.

For a comparison, that week’s Raw drew 2.68 million viewers. This week’s Raw drew an average of 2.53 million viewers. That is a drop off of less than 1%, so it’s reasonable to expect NXT to do a number around the same 841k it did in December 2017. That’s not including the boost NXT is receiving on WWE television, and the increased profile of the show/brand as a whole.

For AEW, we have no historical data to go on, but I think it’s safe to assume it can do close to that number…maybe that 841K is the upper limit. I would set the lower limit at 400k viewers, even though I expect it to beat that mark.

What are USA and TNT drawing on Wednesdays now?

I am glad you asked, because that is a key answer we all need. Beating the other wrestling show is great, but beating the show you replaced on the same network at the same timeslot is more than great–it’s a license to print money!

Let’s take a take a look at the past few weeks of data for USA and TNT:

Wednesday, August 28

• USA Network’s top show: Suits Retrospective at 8:30 PM drew 808k viewers for a .16 demo rating, finishing at #22 for the night
• TNT’s top show: BR Football Match Day at 2:00 PM drew 128k viewers for a .04 demo rating, finishing 141 for the night

Wednesday, August 21

• USA Network’s top show: Suits at 9:00 PM drew 1.050 million viewers for a .20 demo rating, finishing at #25 for the night
• TNT’s top show: I don’t know! TNT failed to crack the Top 150 on this day

Wednesday, August 14

• USA Network’s top show: Suits at 9:00 PM drew 955 million viewers for a .21 demo rating, finishing at #22 for the night
• TNT’s top show: UEFA Super Cup Soccer at 2:42 PM drew 316k viewers for a .14 demo rating, finishing at #42

What does it all mean, Greg?

Here is what I learned: the networks are going to be very happy with NXT and AEW. It’s reasonable to expect the NXT product to push for 1 million eyeballs, and finishing in the Top 20%. Even if NXT draws 841k viewers, it would be a tremendous success for the alternate selection in WWE.  If AEW draws 400k, Turner is going to be happy as they’re barely paying for the content, and the show cracked the Top 150 (maybe even the Top 100).

The historical numbers seem to bode well for NXT and AEW. Despite popular belief, more people know NXT, a fact that even Twitter follower counts can confirm. Plus NXT is getting a two week head start, and I expect them to load up the October 2 show to a Takeover quality.

The easiest way to sum it all up? Focus on what’s important, and that’s the boost AEW and NXT are providing for their network. Both networks will see significant ROI (return on investment) even if there is one clear cut winner early.